Home 校友原创 随笔 裔锦声评《华尔街日报》有关中国房地产市场的报道

登录

相关文章

mod_vvisit_countermod_vvisit_countermod_vvisit_countermod_vvisit_countermod_vvisit_countermod_vvisit_countermod_vvisit_countermod_vvisit_counter
mod_vvisit_counterToday322
mod_vvisit_counterYesterday800
mod_vvisit_counterThis week2989
mod_vvisit_counterThis month17998
mod_vvisit_counterAll1359114
裔锦声评《华尔街日报》有关中国房地产市场的报道
Written by 裔锦声,
Views 3082

WSJ Is Always Wrong in a Long Run!
 
In the middle of my crazy schedule running between top-tier and third-tier cities in China, I read this article. It reminded me of 1989 and how WSJ predicated that China would "from now on descending into the darkest time". Top-tier banks such as Morgan Stanley and Standard Chartered Bank (cited in this article and others most frequently by WSJ) closed down their shops in Hong Kong, stepping stone to China, and moved their offices to Tokyo and Australia.
Well, China proved them wrong: after 1989, China took off. MS and SCB, among others, hurridly moved back to HK and opened offices in China.

Today, they are among the most active investing in Chinese economy, so is WSJ. 
China will continue to take off.
Why? Put it plainly:
WSJ lacks common sense when coming to China; they overly stress short-term gains, and turned a blind eye to what China wants: long-term and steady growth. They don't see or they don't want to see that Chinese government will NOT hesitate to sacrifice the interests of a few property tycoons if that is what it takes for the benefit of 99% of the Chinese population at large.
For the past three weeks in China, I spoke to more than 100 people, among them are top CEOs, top leaders, bankers and ordinary street people. They have one thing in common: continue to improve China's living standards and living environments. They will not allow their good life to slide by all means, no matter how hard the task is.
 
Below are 5 top reasons WSJ overlooked in this article, because of which they are wrong, therefore they are misleasing in both professional and public opinion.
 
1. Besides the top tier cities, China has 5000 3rd and 4th tier cities, and people there are no different from the people in top tier cities: they want new homes. Twenty years ago, people in top-tier cities lived in slums, just like the people in 3rd and 4th tiers cities today;and they have set themselves up as models for 3rd and 4th-tier cities to follow suit. 
2. The definition of "residential" has to be modified by taking into consideration of China's innovation of "residential theme parks", i.e., the various theme parks, be it animation happy valley, hot spring French town, minority village, healthcare/spa treatment centers, all aiming at the other 1/3 land to be used for "construction purpose/license" (residential) vs. "commercial"(industrial/business). The 4 projects I looked into illustrate such kind, for instance, the one in far North bordering Korea, the route to Changbaishan Mountain; the other connecting Beijing and Tianjin, where a new city is shouting up. If you were not there physically with me to eye-witness what I saw, and shook hands, the rough hands that are changing China, you would not have felt the surge of a desire: theirs and yours converging into one sweeping tidal wave! It's nakedly shocking and affecting! One village head with sunbeaten face like a shoeleather drove a brand new Mercede Benz 700 to come to see me who doesn't even own a Cartier. What does that say? They want good life, just like the rest of Beijing and Shanghai, if not better.
And why should they be deprived of it?
Are they not the Chinese?
Is Changbaishan Mountain not part of China?    
3. Today, Chinese government has commanded more money, means, resources, international alliances and momentum than ever before, and they will put it into working for their people at any cost. And they are doing it relentlessly, this includes judging the leaders by their performance in serving the people in the most detailed way, such as giving out free passes to parks, museums and the hours served in community services. One of my friends,a branch manager for an insurance company brings insurance to remote countryside on his days off; another, a bank chairman, spent weekends bringing his team and credit card services to deep mountains, so the poor farmers can also get a chance to learn and use Ebay, Fedex and cellphones. RMB is a hot topic, but how many of us really paid attention to the pictures on the faces of RMB?  Chinese people! Which implies that the currency is supposed to work for its people. The only president on Chinese currency, its largest bill RMB100, is Mao Zedong, the founding father, who believed in equal distribution of the national wealth, on which principal People's Liberation Army defeated the other forces. "打土豪, 分田地"(bring down the landowner, redistribute the land) were sewed on the soles of the shoes of the soldiers in 1949 when they marched on and swept across China with victories!
4. Do not forget China is one party rule. This means the consistency of the policy the Chinese Communist Party will hold onto. Each five-year plan carries out the Party's decisions and plans, not just high-sounding empty words, from cities to dales, aiming at both short-term gain  and long-term security. Among 1.3bil people, 80mil plus are Party members, and they bear in mind the ruling Party's interest, which largely represent the interests of their Moms, Dads, relatives, friends, co-workers, neighbors, as well as their children.  In spite of herendous amount of kickbacks and corruptions going around, Chinese government on the one hand do not hesitate to bring evil doers to justice, on the other they have increased and are still increasing the beneifits to those in key places to make the corruption a toucher game.
After all, today's leaders are judged by their performance and track records in serving the people. My peer, Mr. Ge Honglin, Mayor of Chengdu---Chengdu is where I was born, but I left it 33 years ago for college in 1978, then I left China 26 years ago for a higher education in the US, said and carried out his plans in building Chengdu of 12 mil people into a city of "三无"_ free of begging, free of old age wandering on the streets with no home to go to, and free of children unattending schools. (How he achieved it deserves another separate article. He is just one of the many fine mayors!)   
Indeed, it's human desire to be part of the good, not part of the bad. Let's ask ourselves: How much shame are we willing to bring to our family, to our Dads and Moms and our children when our basic principals and needs are met?
 
5.China beleives in Confucian doctrin, i.e., social order and compassion. People can float and sink the government!  

Published in : 校友原创, 随笔
裔锦声评《华尔街日报》有关中国房地产市场的报道
Tuesday, 14 June 2011 17:48
 
Copyright © 2014 Nankai Alumni Association. All Rights Reserved.
Joomla! is Free Software released under the GNU/GPL License.